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Posted: 8:14 p.m. Tuesday, April 8, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
Tuesday brought another poll from the Keystone State that indicated the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is tightening.
Quinnipiac University reported that Clinton's lead over Obama has now shrunk to 50-44%, with the added news that Hillary has been losing support among women.
There was an American Survey Group poll on Monday that had the race within the margin of error in Pennsylvania. I checked the ASG poll in Ohio just before that primary and they had Hillary winning by 14 points - she won by 10. So maybe it is bad news for her.
Then again, maybe it is just a natural "tightening" of the race and then Hillary's lead grows again. We'll see.
Let's be honest about this, if Obama wins in Pennsylvania, or even if he loses by just a few points, the race could be over.
Clinton and Obama are both back in Pennsylvania today, as two weeks from today we will wake up and now what's next in the Democratic race for the White House.
If the race continues on from there, then we go to Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th. Clinton just began running her first TV ad in Indiana this week, while Obama has been on the air for over two weeks, yet another state where he is outspending her for sure in ad time.
The latest poll from Indiana had only a three point advantage for Clinton, which sort of surprises me, in that I thought she would be doing better there.
There was also a new poll from Oregon, which votes on May 20 (or should I say has a mail-in ballot deadline of May 20) which gave Obama a ten point lead. I really thought he should be ahead by more than that in the Pacific Northwest.
Tuesday did not bring any superdelegate declarations that I found, so we are evidently no closer to resolving this race on that front. There remain over 300 undeclared Democratic supers.
I wrote on Monday about how a superdelegate from Montana was going to declare her intentions, but evidently there is some restriction out there that keeps an elected official from doing so before the primary, so she has to wink-wink when it comes to supporting Obama.
The crazy part about this race is when it finally is over, it's just going to end suddenly. There's no easy letdown in this game. You are either all in, or done for. Not much in the middle.
The odds still favor Obama by a wide margin. But they still have to play the game.
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