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Experts predict an electoral map shake-up with lots of states in play

WASHINGTON – It takes a lot to make a state change color in a presidential election. For all the money spent and speeches made, only three states (Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico) shifted from one column to the other in 2004.

But in a year when change is the major theme, the 2008 Electoral College map could be headed for a significant makeover.

More states could be in play than in recent presidential elections. And voters in those swing states will decide who gets the White House keys.

"It is highly likely that a half-dozen or more states will flip sides in 2008," Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said in a recent prognostication.

GOP strategist Karl Rove, who put together a winning map for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, says it's all about Colorado and Virginia (and their "large concentrations of white, college-educated voters" who back Obama) and Michigan and Ohio (two crucial states where economic woes foreshadowed similar problems nationwide).

"With most states favoring one candidate or the other, this year's contest could come down to a few battleground states," Rove wrote in an August forecast.

A recent Quinnipiac University swing states poll found that most voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida say they want a Democratic president, but Democrat Barack Obama trails Republican John McCain in Florida and is tied with him in Ohio (while maintaining a seven-point edge in Pennsylvania).

The Ohio and Florida numbers are significant, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the poll.

"Senator Obama needs to close the sale with voters who want a Democrat, but because of Senator McCain's strength at this point, they don't want this Democrat," Brown said in an analysis of the results. "Much of the reason for this disparity is that Senator McCain is drawing support from voters who say they don't want a Republican in the White House."

The bottom line in some swing states: "Whether this reflects Obama's weakness or McCain's strength, the effect has been to make a close race out of a campaign many initially expected to be an easy Democratic win."

With a heavy nod to the fact that little changes can make big differences in a presidential race, here's a look at the current state of play in 12 states up for grabs for November.

Colorado

Electoral votes 8

2004 Bush 51.7 Kerry 47

2000 Bush 50.8 Gore 42.4

State of play: A late-August CNN/Time poll gave McCain a one-point edge, with 7 percent saying they'd vote for neither, other or were undecided. Results were similar – a one-point edge for McCain – in an August poll by Quinnipiac University. But interestingly, respondents in that poll – when asked to ignore the candidates – said by an eight-point margin that they'd prefer a Democrat as their next president. Something about the actual candidates – McCain's experience? Obama's lack of experience or race? – moved those respondents toward McCain when asked about the specific candidates in the November battle.

Florida

Electoral votes 25

2004 Bush 52.1 Kerry 47.1

2000 Bush 48.84 Gore 48.84

State of play: A late August Mason-Dixon poll gave Obama a one-point edge, with 11 percent undecided. Quinnipiac's said McCain's lead was four points, showing movement in his direction after Obama had led in June and July polls. McCain could have moved more numbers in his direction if he had picked Gov. Charlie Crist as his running mate. Mason-Dixon poll showed a gender gap: Men favored McCain by 12 points, women liked Obama by 14. Perhaps significantly, independents were for Obama by six.

Iowa

Electoral votes 7

2004 Bush 49.8 Kerry 49.2

2000 Bush 48.2 Gore 48.5

State of play: Where it all started in caucus season could play an important role in how it all ends. August poll by University of Iowa gave Obama a solid seven-point lead in survey of respondents that included a whopping 80 percent who said the nation is heading in wrong direction. McCain's long-standing opposition to subsidies for ethanol – produced with corn – is among factors hurting him in Iowa.

Michigan

Electoral votes 18

2004 Bush 47.8 Kerry 51.2

2000 Bush 46 Gore 51.3

State of play: Mixed results in August polls indicate how firmly Michigan may be in play. A survey for The Detroit News and broadcast stations gave Obama a two-point edge with 13 percent "unsure." But a poll for the Detroit Free Press at the same time showed Obama up by seven with 12 percent "unsure." The economy is the issue in Michigan, as it was long before it became the issue nationwide. The state has been suffering for a long time and could continue to turn to the Democrats for answers as it did in 2000 and 2004 when it also was a battleground. Outcome likely to be determined by white, working-class voters who call themselves Democrats but sometimes vote Republican.

Minnesota

Electoral votes 10

2004 Bush 47.6 Kerry 51.1

2000 Bush 45.5 Gore 47.9

State of play: Democrats are pretty confident about this one, and polls show why. University of Minnesota survey in August for Minnesota Public Radio gave Obama a solid 10-point lead, up from two-point edge in July poll by Quinnipiac.

Nevada

Electoral votes 4

2004 Bush 50.5 Kerry 47.9

2000 Bush 49.5 Gore 46

State of play: Democrats are banking on moving this state to their column after two losses to Bush. CNN/Time poll in August gave Obama a five-point lead in a one-on-one match-up with McCain, with 8 percent saying neither, other or unsure. Think third- and fourth-party candidates don't matter? The poll showed an Obama-McCain dead heat when pollsters also included Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney and independent Ralph Nader. Appropriately, the outcome in Nevada could be a roll of the dice.

New Hampshire

Electoral votes 4

2004 Bush 48.9 Kerry 50.2

2000 Bush 48.1 Gore 46.8

State of play: Close, again. New Hampshire-based American Research Group poll showed Obama by a point in mid-August, way down from a 12-point margin in June.

New Mexico

Electoral votes 5

2004 Bush 49.5 Kerry 49.1

2000 Bush 47.84 Gore 47.91

State of play: After two tight races, recent polls indicate Obama is in good shape to capture New Mexico's five electoral votes that were crucial to Bush's 2000 victory. CNN/ Time showed the Democrat with a 13-point margin in late August. Margin grew by a point when Nader was added to the mix. Popularity of Bill Richardson, the state's Democratic governor, helps Obama in battle against McCain from neighboring Arizona. Note: Earlier August Mason-Dixon poll gave McCain a four-point edge.

Ohio

Electoral votes 20

2004 Bush 50.8 Kerry 48.7

2000 Bush 50 Gore 46.5

State of play: On just about everybody's list of crucial states. Quinnipiac's August poll showed Obama up by one point, down from six-point edge in June. Columbus Dispatch poll had McCain up by one in mid-August. As in 2000 and 2004, look for both candidates to spend plenty of time and money in Ohio.

Pennsylvania

Electoral votes 23

2004 Bush 48.4 Kerry 50.1

2000 Bush 46.4 Gore 50.6

State of play: Twins with Ohio as state on everybody's list of crucial contests. Obama by five, says CNN/Time's August poll. Margin moves to nine when Nader and Barr are included in the question. Similar results from Quinnipiac, which found seven-point edge for Obama in mid-August poll. General consensus: Obama can't win without Pennsylvania. McCain might be able to. As in Michigan, crucial segment of Pennsylvania electorate includes white, working-class voters who identify themselves as Democrats but sometimes vote Republican.

Virginia

Electoral votes 13

2004 Bush 53.7 Kerry 45.5

2000 Bush 52.5 Gore 44.4

State of play: This is the state Democrats – who have not had a presidential candidate carry it since 1964 - love to talk about. Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine is popular. Former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner is in strong position to win Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican John Warner. Growth in Northern Virginia – including D.C. suburbs – has been heavily Democratic. That said, the state is solidly in play in the presidential race. "It's hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia's Electoral College votes," Rasmussen Reports said in an August survey report detailing Obama's "statistically insignificant" one-point lead. "Thanks to dramatic population growth in Northern Virginia and university communities, this is not your father's Virginia," Sabato said in a recent analysis of the state that once housed the capital of the Confederacy. "It is a mid-Atlantic state rather than a southern state."

Wisconsin

Electoral votes 11

2004 Bush 49.3 Kerry 49.7

2000 Bush 47.6 Gore 47.8

State of play: Democrats are counting on keeping Wisconsin in their column. Early August survey by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute gave Obama a six-point lead, with 18 percent undecided. August poll by Strategic Vision, a Republican outfit, showed Obama up by five, with 11 percent undecided.