Home > Blogs > Sir Critic on Cinema > Archives > 2009 > February > 18 > Entry
Oscar Predictions: The Actresses
Yesterday I predicted the male acting Oscar races, today I turn to the females. Again, nominees are listed from most to least likely to win.
BEST ACTRESS
- Kate Winslet, The Reader
- Meryl Streep, Doubt
- Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
- Melissa Leo, Frozen River
- Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Jolie simply won’t win - not against this competition. It’s not enough to earn her a second Oscar, after her Girl, Interrupted win. Leo has her devotees and so has an outside shot, but she’s in the same indie-player-who’s-thankful-to-be-nominated boat as Best Actor nominee Richard Jenkins. Hathaway surprised many with her searing performance as a recovering drug addict, and a win isn’t absolutely out of the question, but this race is between two Oscar veterans.
Streep won the SAG award for playing a skeptical nun, and although she’s racked up Oscar nomination after Oscar nomination, she hasn’t won since 1983, when she took home the gold for Sophie’s Choice. The Academy might well feel she’s due again.
Still, Kate Winslet is egregiously overdue. The simple fact remains that Streep has two Oscars, and Winslet has none. Plus, the Academy (inexplicably) liked The Reader well enough to give it five noms, so I think voters will say voting for Winslet is the best way to reward the film.
Will win: Winslet
Should win: I saw The Wrestler and Rachel Getting Married back to back, and it struck me that Rourke and Hathaway pulled off very similar feats. Both actors took potentially unlikeable characters and made me absolutely root for both of them by the end. Besides, I’ve been telling people for years that there was more to Hathaway than meets the eye; it’s nice to be proved legit.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Viola Davis, Doubt
- Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
- Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Amy Adams, Doubt
Much as I hate to rank Amy Adams last, there’s simply no way she wins this time - not with costar Davis getting the lion’s share of attention. (This writer makes an interesting if a bit far-fetched case for her to win). Henson provides Benjamin Button with much of its warmth, but I don’t sense voters passionately loving the film or her performance. And even though Tomei will get some support off of co-star Mickey Rourke’s coattails, I don’t think the Academy feels this is the time to give her Oscar No. 2, although she has certainly proved her My Cousin Vinny win wasn’t a fluke.
So again, that leaves the race between two very close front-runners. At one time Cruz seemed unbeatable for her spitfire turn in Woody Allen’s film, and Allen does have a track record for guiding supporting actresses to wins, like Dianne Wiest (Hannah and Her Sisters, Bullets Over Broadway) and Mira Sorvino (Mighty Aphrodite). However, Cruz has seemed to fade in the stretch. I’m very troubled by the fact that Vicky did not get a screenplay nomination. Granted, the writers nominate that category, but if the writers, who usually love Allen, couldn’t get behind the film, what does that say about Cruz’s chances?
That leaves Davis, who absolutely makes the most of her limited screen time, just as prior winners Beatrice Straight (Network) and Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love) did. She’s been building momentum lately, and the fact that all four of Doubt’s principals are nominated tells me the actors really liked the film. That’s why I’m calling Davis for a slight upset.
Will win: Davis
Should win: If I’m voting with my heart, I must vote for Adams, but you won’t hear me complain if Davis or Cruz wins.
Agree or disagree? Who was snubbed?
Permalink | Comments (0) | Post your comment | Categories: Oscars Sunday Night
Comments