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Oscar Predictions: The Actors
Having returned from my travels, it’s time to break out my crystal ball/tarot cards/Ouija Board/good sense and try to predict the Oscar winners.
Bear in mind that I once placed sixth in the nation predicting the Oscars in a contest. Also bear in mind that I failed to ace a single major category in my nomination predictions this year. But bear in mind again that when I placed sixth, it was for picking the winners. Place your bets accordingly, always remembering the two key Oscar mottos: “Nobody knows anything” and “Deserve’s got nothin’ to do with it.”
Today, the males. Wednesday, the females. Thursday, picture and director, and Friday the whole shebang. The show is on Sunday evening on ABC; watch for my live blog of the telecast.
I will rank the nominees from most to least likely to win.
BEST ACTOR
- Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
- Sean Penn, Milk
- Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
- Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
- Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I can pretty much write off Pitt; though I think he deserves more credit than some have given him, I think many voters will think that performance was mainly makeup and effects, rightly or wrongly.
I would be delighted to see Jenkins take the prize; he was wonderful in The Visitor, but his is the sort of under-the-radar performance where the nomination is the award.
A win by Langella would not shock me, he’s done good, solid work for years, and his is the sort of career the Academy would like to recognize at a late date (see James Coburn’s win for Affliction.) However, the overall heat around the film has died down considerably, and I just don’t sense he has enough momentum to take over the front-runners.
Penn could very, very easily take it. Actors clearly love him (they nominated him for I am Sam, after all), and he won the SAG prize for his performance as gay rights pioneer Harvey Milk. It also helps that he’s bright and lively in this performance as opposed to his more typical dark and surly mode. And the recent Prop 8 gay rights controversy in California will no doubt be fresh in the minds of some voters. However, Penn won very recently for Mystic River.
That leaves Mickey Rourke, who gave a heart-wrenching performance as the desperately seeking redemption has-been Randy “the Ram.” His comeback story is almost legend by now, and this feels like a once-in-a-career shot. Penn will certainly be back in this circle. Rourke? Not as certain. That’s why I think he wins.
Will win: Rourke
Should win: Rourke. With an appreciative nod to Jenkins and Penn, no actor moved me more.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
- Josh Brolin, Milk
- Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
- Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Yes, the numbering is intentional. Anyone who’s not predicting Ledger at this point is either a moron or a ballot-counter for the Academy who is willing to risk his or her job by revealing one of the biggest jaw-droppers ever, from the Oscars or anyone. Prepare for a moving acceptance speech by Ledger’s family.
Will/Should win: The Joker
Who will win the Best Actor/Supporting Actor Oscars? Who should? Who got robbed?
Permalink | Comments (3) | Post your comment | Categories: Oscars Sunday Night
Comments
By SRCputt
February 17, 2009 6:15 PM | Link to this
Lead actor has three great performances this year, the top three in Eric’s rankings. I’ll be happy with any of them, but if I had a vote I would cast it for Langella. He took a person I have found terrible and made him intriguing. He embodied Nixon without it ever seeming like a cheap impression. But I’ll be happy with any of the top three. This is among the best work of Penn’s career, especially because it is so fun and joyous and completely different from his other work. And Mickey Rourke just laid himself bare in The Wrestler. The work in the old boardwalk, talking to his estranged daughter, is as powerful as any performance this year in any category.By Kim S.
February 17, 2009 2:37 PM | Link to this
I’d love for Rourke to win - I do think his performance is the best I’ve seen all year. As far as Ledger goes, I’m not exactly sure it’s the best performance - I still see TDK as an ensemble film. And from what I’ve read in Entertainment Weekly, Ledger himself hated the Oscars and all the hoopla. I haven’t seen Milk yet, so I can’t comment. If I don’t get to it, I won’t exactly be sad. I am sorry that Langella is now a longshot - I thought he was fantastic.By Jock
February 17, 2009 10:51 AM | Link to this
Well, yes I’ll go out on that limb with you. Heath Ledger will take the Oscar! Rourke should win, but the gay lobby may put Penn over the top. Benjamin Button should, Slumdog will!