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Oscar nomination predictions: The acting races
Oscar nomination week rolls on. Yesterday I went below the line, today I go above the line by predicting which actors will be tapped. Again, nominations are Thursday.
BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Alternates: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Write Langella, Penn and Rourke down in ink. Their buildup in insurmountable. That leaves two open slots. Benjamin Button has enough momentum that I think Pitt is in, even though some say it’s a passive performance. Still, it’s “gimmicky” enough for the actors to take notice.
The last slot is a three-way battle. DiCaprio is well-liked enough to have an outside shot, but the tepid response to his movie hurts him. He’s not seen as “due” so much as his costar is. Finally, there are Eastwood and Jenkins. The Screen Actors Guild went for Jenkins, but they tend to be a more clubbish group that roots for steady, reliable, less recognized players like him. The Academy usually goes for loud and brash over quiet and understated - so I just don’t feel safe betting against Eastwood, who is beloved. And the people who are fans of his film tend to support it very strongly.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Your locks are Hathaway, Streep and Winslet. Kristin Scott Thomas has been talked up for her work in I Loved You So Long, but her buzz has recently died down. And for whatever reason, buzz never really built for Cate Blanchett in Benjamin Button either. The Academy tends to like actors in Mike Leigh movies (see Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake. Brenda Blethyn in Secrets and Lies), and I think many voters will find Hawkins’ character irresistible. Melissa Leo garnered much acclaim for her role in Frozen River, but this is a mirror of the Best Actor race. Leo is more of an indie darling, Jolie is louder and brasher - and she’s a former winner (for Girl Interrupted), so she gets the nod.
Supporting races after the jump:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternates: James Franco, Milk; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road; Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
Ledger is a sure thing, as is Hoffman, and I’m quite confident about Downey, who had a banner year. Voters will pat him on the back for that and for his fearless comedic performance. I think Brolin trumps Franco for two reasons: One, Brolin has had heavier career momentum, and again, he has the flashier part than Franco. For the fifth slot, the love for Slumdog should carry Patel into the race, never mind that he’s actually a lead. For that matter, so is Hoffman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Alternates: Amy Adams, Doubt; Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Cruz, Davis and Winslet are the front-runners. I feel a little less secure about Henson, but her performance as Ben Button’s “mother” is the heartwarming type, which helps. Marisa Tomei is a former winner (for My Cousin Vinny), she copped one other nomination (for Into the Bedroom) and her film is gaining ground, so she seems like a secure choice.. DeWitt might get in on Hathaway’s coattails, but I rather doubt it. And speaking of Doubt, It would make me very happy to see Adams in the five, but I think her performance is too understated for many voters to place her very high on the ballot. However, I predicted she would be nominated last year for Enchanted, and she was robbed, so maybe if I don’t predict her this year, she’ll get in - reverse psychology!
Picture/Director predictions arrive Wednesday. Who do you think will be/should be nominated among the actors?
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Comments
By SRCputt
January 20, 2009 9:12 AM | Link to this
In my predictions, I think Jenkins will get nominated, and I think Eastwood has faded as the film seems to have faded from the general Oscar picture. I also think something odd might happen in the supporting actor race. If I am taking someone out of the blue, I like the upset chances of another lead, Michael Sheen in Frost/Nixon, over Brolin, who is a good actor but doesn’t have much to do in Milk.