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Monday, January 19, 2009
Predicting the Oscar nominatons, Part 1
It’s Oscar nominations week on the blog. The Academy’s picks will be announced Thursday, so I will be breaking out my predictions. Tuesday I will cover the actors and actresses (those picks are here) Wednesday I will cover Picture and Director, and Thursday I will react to the actual picks. Friday I intend to review Revolutionary Road, which many people (myself included) will be the movie that finally nets Kate Winslet an Oscar.
So where does that leave today? The below the line categories. I know a lot of people “don’t care” about these, but some Oscar pools do require that you fill out even the tech categories so I’m here to help you with those (although I don’t know enough about short films, foreign films or documentaries to make those calls). For more information, check out the charts linked on this page at The Film Experience, an excellent resource.
Best Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir
Alternate: Bolt
Easy calls. Almost too easy.
Best Original Screenplay
Happy Go Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona
WALL-E
Alternates: Burn After Reading, Gran Torino, The Visitor, The Wrestler
The Writers Guild passed over Rachel, but enough people will see the film to nominate Anne Hathaway, and writer Jenny Lumet is the daughter of well-regarded director Sidney, and Oscar likes that kind of progeny. Pixar has better luck with the Oscars than they do the guilds, and Mike Leigh, the writer-director behind Happy Go Lucky, tends to cop nods for writing even though his films are largely improvised by the actors.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternates: The Reader, Revolutionary Road
Right down the line with the guilds here. These feel like very secure picks.
Best Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Alternates: Defiance, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Milk
A tough category to predict this year. Count on Ben Button and Slumdog. I’m nervous about Dark Knight since it was previously disqualified, but I think the film has enough momentum to swing in. Revolutionary Road has lost momentum overall, but I think Thomas Newman’s name is strong enough to get him nominated for both that and WALL-E. I’m taking a risk not nominating John Williams, but I thought his score for Indy IV was just decent - and I defend that film!
Best Song
“Down to Earth,” WALL-E
“Gran Torino”, Gran Torino
“I Thought I Lost You, ” Bolt
“Jaiho, ” Slumdog Millionaire
“The Wrestler,” The Wrestler
Count on WALL-E’s song and Springsteen’s tune for The Wrestler. The “Slumdog” tune will get in on the film’s momentum. And I mainly picked the other two because I couldn’t think of better alternatives.
We get to the real nitty-gritty at the jump.
Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Revolutionary Road
Alternates: Australia, The Duchess, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire
Count on a raft of period work, and a near technical sweep by The Dark Knight. This is one rare category I expect Slumdog to miss, because that was more location work than sets. And as much as people disliked Indiana Jones, is anyone seriously going to argue the sets in that aren’t first rate? If so, you’re a fool.
Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternates: Defiance, Milk
I took the same five the American Society of Cinematographers took, it seemed the safest way to go.
Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Safest bet is to match the likely picture nominees, and I feel very comfortable with that, even to the point of not naming alternates.
Best Costume Design
Changeling (period)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (periods, technical sweep)
The Duchess (opulence)
Revolutionary Road (period)
Slumdog Millionaire (love for the film)
Alternates: The Dark Knight, The Other Boleyn Girl
Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (old age)
The Reader (old age)
Tropic Thunder (Blood and blackface)
Alternate: Synecdoche, NY
Best Sound Mixing - for overall sound design
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Fincher’s movies always sound great)
The Dark Knight (technical sweep)
Iron Man (Big summer blockbuster)
Slumdog Millionaire (sweep)
WALL-E (Pixar, genius)
Best Sound Editing - more for effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Fincher)
The Dark Knight (Sweep)
Indiana Jones (All the other films were)
Iron Man (Big Summer blockbuster)
WALL-E (Pixar, genius)
Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
The technical category I feel safest predicting. These are the obvious three.
What do you think? Who would you like to see win in this lot?
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