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The toughest Oscar predix: The actresses
For my final round of major category Oscar predictions, I’ve saved the toughest calls for last: the ladies. Many people think Best Actress is an easy pick, but I’m not quite so convinced. And then there’s Best Supporting Actress, which is the true wild card of the night.
In case you missed em, click back on my Best Picture/Director and Actor/Supporting Actor predictions.
Candidates are listed from least to most likely to win.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age: With all do respect to the great Cate, we can ace her out right away. She was indeed the best thing about the film, but the film itself was as dopey as a marijuana crop. She’s a better bet in Supporting Actress, where she’s also in contention, so this was a wasted nomination.
Laura Linney, The Savages: I wouldn’t say Linney has no shot at winning; she’s extremely well-liked, and she’s overdue for recognition. However, The Savages itself hasn’t racked up that much acclaim, so Linney just won’t have enough momentum. She’ll get her prize sometime, just not now.
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose: The French actress has a coterie of passionate admirers, and I can see why. She excelled at playing Edith Piaf, and her physical transformation was nothing short of remarkable. Here’s how she normally looks:
And here’s how she looked late in the film:
Still, it’s very rare that foreign actors get these prizes; one has to be a legend, or the film has to be a huge hit. Neither is the case here.
Ellen Page, Juno: The rising young star has become the “it” girl of the season, and the Best Director nod for Juno tells me support for the film is strong, despite any supposed backlash. If enough voters fall for the film, she could very well win, Still, Page has most of her career ahead of her, and the role may seem a little too offbeat for some. Which is why I’m ultimately going with …
Julie Christie, Away from Her: The well-loved veteran has picked up two armloads of percursor prizes, and the performance is easy awards bait. with Christie gracefully and not piteously playing an Alzheimer’s patient. She won in this category for Darling, but that was more than 40 years ago, I think sentiment is rolling her way more than anyone else. I wouldn’t be all that shocked by Cotillard or Page pulling an upset, but here’s the thing about upsets: I suck at picking them. I don’t think I’ve ever been right in calling one. So I’m playing it safe and sticking with Christie.
WILL WIN: Christie
SHOULD WIN: Amy Adams for Enchanted, dagnabit! But since the voters were too lazy to nominate her …
I’ve heard complaints that Page’s performance is all snark, or that she’s “playing herself.” Those complainers clearly aren’t paying attention. Yes, Juno’s snappy one-liners are what first come to mind about the character, but what makes her truly resonate is how character changes in the film, becoming less sarcastic and more grounded. Even if she doesn’t win, I fully expect Page to be back here before too long.
Your turn to vote:
[an error occurred while processing this directive]And now, the toughest category of them all - click on the jump to end the drum roll:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement: Ronan, 13, showed remarkable poise in the key role of her film: the tremulous child who sets a chain of tragedies in motion with a reckless lie. If her performance didn’t deliver, the film would have collapsed. However, the film’s acclaim dimmed as time went by, and she’ s up against very heavy competition. It’s not impossible that she’d win, but it’s very, very unlikely.
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There: In just about any other year, I would have called Blanchett the easy winner in this category. After all, it’s not every day that a great female Australian actress utterly nails Bob Dylan circa 1965. There’s one major problem, though: Blanchett won an Oscar only three years ago, and for playing a real person to boot: Kate Hepburn in The Aviator. Unless voters default to the flashiest performance, which they may very well do, I think they’ll bypass Blanchett this time.
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone: Ryan built up a great deal of steam early on for playing the drug-addled mom of a missing child, picking up an armful of critics’ trophies. She also has the distinct advantage of being a well-regarded stage/character actress, not unlike winners Mercedes Ruehl (The Fisher King) and Marcia Gay Harden (Pollack). However, I think her momentum has peaked.
Ruby Dee, American Gangster: Dee is a legend among actors, having steadily worked int the business for decades, often in tandem with her late husband Ossie Davis. Her victory at the Screen Actors Guild awards is clear evidence of the high regard in which she is held. Some deride her chances for the brevity of her performance in the movie, and it is true that one short but crucial scene got her the nomination. That said, other actresses have won with very little screen time, such as Beatrice Striaght for Network, and Judi Dench for Shakespeare in Love.
However …. Network and Shakespeare in Love were both Best Picture nominees. American Gangster is not; and unlike those acclaimed films, Gangster has only one other nomination, for Art Direction. And lest we think the time is ripe to award an aging legend, try telling that to another lady, whom everyone was soooooo sure would win an Oscar, until Juliette Binoche’s name was called, for the Best Picture nominee, The English Patient. That lady was Lauren Bacall, and she’s an even bigger showbiz legend than Dee. I’m not ruling out Dee, but all things considered, I feel a tad more comfortable picking ….
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton: Oscar-watchers who talk to voters have reported a surge for Michael Clayton, a Best Picture nominee. I think that will manifest itself in votes for Swinton, a uniquely talented actress who brings a very distinct flair to everything from arthouse hits (Orlando) to entertaining junk (Constantine) to fantasy blockbusters (The Chronicles of Narnia). That versatility, coupled with the fact that she’s in a well-liked Best Pic nom, will carry her to the Kodak stage.
WILL WIN: Swinton, by a hair - although only Ronan would truly surprise me.
SHOULD WIN: I greatly admire all the nominated performances, but the one that moved me the most is the one least likely to win: Ronan.
Your turn again:
[an error occurred while processing this directive]Now … tell me why you picked the ladies you did.
Permalink | Comments (4) | Categories: Oscars Sunday Night
Comments
By SRCputt
February 20, 2008 7:08 PM | Link to this
Oddly, the two supporting performances I have seen are from Atonement and I’m Not There. Blanchett’s work was amazing, and I did think the Oscars got Atonement right and nominated the best performance in the film. The leads of Atonement were very good, but not quite top 5 quality in my opinion.By SRCputt
February 20, 2008 7:02 PM | Link to this
Best Actress is REALLY tough for me, Allie. I haven’t seen any of the nominees yet. Although I will see Juno Saturday when I go to a best picture marathon. And I have Away From Her at home from Netflix.By Allie D.
February 20, 2008 3:39 PM | Link to this
These are all tough calls for me, mostly because I have not seen all of these films. I have yet to see Atonement and I’m Not There, so I can’t offer judgment. But I will say that I like Page or Christie for Best Actress and I like Swinton and Ryan for Supporting, but I am thinking that the weight of the SAG will carry for Dee and the prize will go to her.By SRCputt
February 20, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this
I predicted Ruby Dee in the comments section when you predicted the Globe nominees, and I’m holding to it. And since you mentioned the quality of the film, let me point out that when you bring up Lauren Bacall, she was nominated for the lightweight “The Mirror Has Two Faces”. While Gangster didn’t do as well in the Oscar race as some expected, it is not “The Mirror Has Two Faces”.