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Oscar, Oscar, who will win Best Picture/Director?
Put away the Valentines stuff and break out your Oscar ballots, folks. The show’s coming up this Sunday, and it’s time to make some predictions here.
This year, unlike the Oscars, I’m not going to make you wait aaaallll the way till the end for the Best Picture prize and make you suffer through 459 montages. I’m going to START with Best Director and Picture. Why? I figured it was a good way to kick-start Oscar week, and well, quite frankly, these are two of the easier categories to predict.
Here’s how this will work all week: I’m going to analyze each nominee from least likely to most likely to win. Then I will give you the chance to tell me who you think should and will win each prize.
So here goes:
BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: Schnabel showed extremely impressive visual command in his film about a French magazine editor who is completely paralyzed except for one eyelid, and for much of the film, Schnabel boldly tells the story with a subjective camera so we can go inside the protagonist’s anguished mind. Since the movie is not up for a Best Picture prize, that almost certainly kills his chances of winning.
Jason Reitman, Juno: Reitman shocked everyone by being nominated at all, most people, myself included, thought that since Juno is more of a writer’s film than a director’s film, but he made the cut, which tells me that support for Juno may be stronger than many people think. Still, up against the showier visual styles of some of the other directors here, I don’t give Reitman much of a chance.
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton: Gilory, one of the sturdiest and most respected writers in town (he co-wrote all of the Bourne movies), impressed many with the supreme confidence of his directorial debut, which very successfully echoes the work of such respected directors as Sydney Pollack and Alan J. Pakula, and some voters will doubtlessly appreciate the throwback. That said, it’s not his time to win a directing prize - not with the last two/three nominees in the mix.
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood: Anderson has built a reputation as one of the gutsiest iconoclasts in the business through films like Boogie Nights and Magnolia. Yet with this movie he produced something in a completely different style than any of his other movies, while still retaining his unique voice. A most impressive feat indeed. He could pull an upset, but there are still significant amounts of people who find Anderson’s work hard to digest. So it’s not his time yet either. Which leaves …
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men: The film was hailed as their best since Fargo, for which the brothers won a writing trophy. However, they do not yet own a directing trophy, and I think the Academy is itching to give them one.
WILL WIN: The Coens
SHOULD WIN: Seeing the Coens up there would not displease me in any way, shape or form, but I think Anderson’s work visually is even bolder in the way it h harkens back to an almost classical shooting style.
Now cast YOUR ballot: Tell us what director you would vote for if you were an Academy member.
[an error occurred while processing this directive]BEST PICTURE (after the jump)
Atonement: How far the onetime front-runner has fallen. At one point, prognosticators heavily pegged this film to sweep the Oscars, but it lagged behind because the buzz peaked early. Focus Features should have released it much earlier than they did to allow the buzz to build, and they might have won. As it is, without a director nomination, this very fine film has almost no chance of winning the big prize that once seemed like a sure thing.
Michael Clayton: Support for this legal drama is passionate, and many voters will like how it feels like a movie made in the 70s (Klute, The Conversation) even though it’s set in the present day. Others feel it’s too low-key, however.
There Will Be Blood: The Academy likes big, sprawling epics that encompass the dark side of America (a la The Godfather), but as effective as the film is, I think it won’t register well with the Academy’s more conservative voters, who may find its unusual storytelling off-putting.
Juno: This year’s “little movie that could” is the biggest box-office hit of the bunch, a stat that works more heavily in Oscar’s favor than many people are willing to admit. With $124 million and counting, the film has succeeded even beyond the wildest dreams of its most ardent admirers. A bit of a backlash is in the wind (“It’s too self-conscious,” “Nobody talks like Juno,” blah blah blah), but what will probably keep this film from the winner’s circle is not so much that backlash as the Academy’s age-old bias against comedy. Still, it’s the movie most likely to ursurp the perceived front-runner ….
No Country for Old Men: Since people call this one of the best films by the Coen brothers, that means it has to be one of the best films by anyone. It has racked up one pre-Oscar prize after another. Some may carp about the deliebrately vague denouement, but I think that actually works in the movie’s favor, creating a “what does it all mean?” vibe - it’s the picture people can’t stop talking about.
WILL WIN: No Country
SHOULD WIN: As much as I love No Country, I’ve come to find that There Will Be Blood haunts me more, with its engrossing story of false prophets and soulless opportunism.
Again, your vote: What picture do you think SHOULD win:
[an error occurred while processing this directive]Now that you’ve cast your vote, leave a comment and tell me why you picked as you did - or tell me why I’m right or wrong.
Permalink | Comments (3) | Categories: Oscars Sunday Night
Comments
By ca
February 20, 2008 5:33 PM | Link to this
ooohh noooo, there will be blood was an abomination of a movie .. totally crackpot…oh, should i say i hated it?By SRCputt
February 18, 2008 6:14 PM | Link to this
There Will Be Blood has an amazing shelf life in my head as well, and would be my best picture vote, though No Country is great too. I would vote for Anderson in director, though would be happy with the Coens or Schnabel. All three films were great storytelling by all facets of moviemaking, and that is the sign of great directing.By Allie D.
February 18, 2008 1:11 PM | Link to this
I too have come to feel the same way about Blood. That movie struck me deeper and has haunted me far more than Country, and I feel it SHOULD win a heck of a lot more than it’s going to. That being said, No Country is a great stand-in. It’s an amazing film. But Blood is a rare masterpiece that could never be duplicated. Day-Lewis will get his statue, though, and that will make me happy.