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All the Oscar predictions are here

By Eric Robinette | Friday, February 23, 2007, 07:34 AM

Cut! That’s a wrap on Oscar predictions!

Well, wait not quite yet. I may have tackled all the major categories, but I still have the others to tackle - because I know you‘re all chomping at the bit to find out who’s winning sound effects editing! (“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” by the way).

Still, as an avid Oscar watcher, I am obliged to cover all the bases and help you fill out your office pool ballots. So here’s a recap of what I’ve predicted so far, plus my takes on the smaller races.

To conserve space, I’ll leave the nominees list here, and get straight to the will/should wins. Full analyses of the major categories can be found in the links below, in case you missed them.

The Actors

The Actresses

The Directors

The Pictures

BEST PICTURE

Will win: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Should win: “The Departed”

BEST ACTOR

Will/should win: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”

Should win: Kate Winslet, “Little Children”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”

Should win: Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will/Should win: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”

BEST DIRECTOR

Should win: Paul Grengrass (“United 93”) if I vote with my head, Martin Scorsese (“The Departed”) if I vote with my heart.

Will win: Martin Scorsese

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Should win: “Pan’s Labyrinth,” for its amazing blend of reality and fantasy

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will/should win: “The Departed.” That screenplay just cooks. And sizzles.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: “Cars”

Should win: “Monster House”

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Will win: “An Inconvenient Truth” will clean up, after a fashion.

Should win: Have not seen enough of the nominees to say.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will/should win: “Pan’s Labyrinth,” which has five other nominations, should win easily. And it’s a masterpiece, so it’s deserving.

BEST SCORE

Will win: Alexandre Desplat, “The Queen.” The Academy seems to favor these sorts of “classy,” understated scores e.g. “Emma” and “The Cider House Rules.”

Should win: “Pan’s Labyrinth” had a sweeping score, but it didn’t overwhelm the movie, as so many sweeping scores do.

BEST SONG

Will/Should win: “Listen” from “Dreamgirls” was the emotional high point of the new songs written for the film.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Will/Should win: Some are guessing the “Dreamgirls” time warp will win, but with all the nominations “Pan’s” has, I think enough people have seen it to realize what an achievement its fantasy landscapes are.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will/Should win: Emmanuel Lubezki has earned so much praise for his stunning tracking shots in “Children of Men” I find it difficult to bet against it, although “Pan’s Labyrinth” could upset. But I doubt it.

BEST EDITNG

Will win: Thelma Schoonmaker, Scorsese’s editor, won only two years ago for “The Aviator,” so I’ll guess the Academy taps the overlapping stories of “Babel.”

Should win: “United 93” was a master class in editing.

BEST COSTUMES:

Will/should win: Contemporary films don’t often win here, but I’m betting that “The Devil Wears Prada” proves the exception to the rule. Not only did the costumes have to reflect the latest fashion trends, they also had to reflect the characters, and they did so very well.

BEST SOUND

Will win: Musicals usually take the prize here, so “Dreamgirls” gets it.

Should win: “Apocalypto” used sound well not only because it knew when to bombard you, but when not to. And I do not say this wholly in sympathy for poor Kevin O’ Connell, who has been nominated in this category 19 times without one lousy win. Eat your heart out, Scorsese and O’Toole.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will/should win: This typically goes to the movie with the most sound editing. That’s “Pirates.”

BEST MAKEUP

Will/should win: “Pan’s Labyrinth” in a walk.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will/should win: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.” I may not be a huge fan of the sequel, but I’d be a fool to say the effects were anything but astonishing. The film deserves the award for Davy Jones alone.

Good luck in your office pools, I’ll see you here for the live blogging Sunday!

Permalink | Comments (2) | Categories: Oscars Sunday Night

Comments

By SRCputt

February 25, 2007 7:08 PM | Link to this

OK Eric, for comparison sake, here’s my predictions different than yours: Costumes: Dreamgirls (sharen Carter hasn’t won yet) Editing: United 93 (because it needs to win something) Score: Notes on a Scandal (Phillip Glass hasn’t won yet) And yes, Picture: Babel (it’s the closest to an “Oscar-type” picture this year).

By ME

February 23, 2007 10:31 AM | Link to this

As always I await to see the results and trust your judgement Sircritic … we are not worthy … I enjoy Ellen and I’m sure she’ll be a great hostess. I totally enjoyed Jon Stewart last year - was he not asked back because he’s too political? I just love Jon … but Ellen too so I’m sure it will be a great night to watch as always. Good luck ER! My prediction is that you my friend will do better than you ever have on your predictions. …
 

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