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Who/will should win the Oscar for Best Picture?

By Eric Robinette | Thursday, February 22, 2007, 11:33 AM

And now - it’s time for the big one - predicting the Oscar for Best Picture. And for the first time in a long while, this is the toughest of the big races to predict.

Each of the nominees has a conceivable shot at winning. Here they are:

  1. Little Miss Sunshine
  2. Babel
  3. The Departed
  4. Letters from Iwo Jima
  5. The Queen

Everyone agrees “The Queen”’s greatest asset is its title performance, and everyone agrees Mirren is a lock to win that Oscar. However, its very British milieu means it may not resonate so well with American voters. And some see it as a TV movie, albeit a very classy one.

“Letters” was a late entry in the competition because its companion Iwo Jima film, “Flags of Our Fathers,” wasn’t the awards juggernaut everyone assumed it would be. Because voters have recently discovered “Letters,” it may have more steam than people suspect, and most think it’s a notable improvement over “Flags.” Still, I find it hard to imagine a sizable bloc of voters embracing what is really a small foreign language arthouse pic, even though Clint Eastwood directed.

“The Departed” is the biggest hit of the bunch, and contrary to popular belief, that helps more than it hurts your prospects for the big prize. Many people who see it come out charged, and affection for presumed Best Director Martin Scorsese will give it a boost. However, complaints that the movie is “just” a very well done genre pic are prevalent.

“Babel” has been likened to an international version of “Crash,” last year’s victor, and this is the most self-consciously heavy and important film of the lot. Voters who feel the Best Picture should have “something to say” will most likely check its box. However, “Babel” divides every crowd that sees it, so there’s a sizable contingent that hates it.

That leaves “Little Miss Sunshine.” Some see it as too slight, too small, too quirky to win. And experts like to point out that the movie has neither a directing nor editing nomination, two bellwethers for Best Picture. However, all things being equal, I don’t believe voters sit around with their ballots, thinking “Well, this film won’t get this, but that film will win this, so I have to/must not give this third film something.” The Academy members are not that cerebral. They vote for what they like - or more importantly, what they love. “ “Sunshine” is the warmest and fuzziest film of the nominees - I think it wins.

WILL WIN: “Little Miss Sunshine”

SHOULD WIN: “The Departed” was my number two film of the year, behind “United 93.” Spectacularly easy call.

One more day of predictions to go. Here’s what I’ve covered so far and what’s coming up:

MONDAY: The Actors

TUESDAY: The Actresses

WEDNESDAY: The Directors

FRIDAY: Wrap-up, including other categories

SUNDAY: Live-blogging the Oscars

In the meantime, comment: Who should win and who will win the big prize?

Permalink | Comments (4) | Categories: Oscars Sunday Night

Comments

By SRCputt

February 25, 2007 7:16 PM | Link to this

Well, Eric did say Babel is love it or hate it. And we’ve heard from the hate it crowd. But I would vote for Babel. Of the five nominees, it gave me a full movie experience. And the filmmaking which balances several timelines at once, is for me as accomplished as any of the nominees. That said, I’d take United 93, Children of Men, and Pan’s Labyrinth over any of the nominees.

By Zack

February 22, 2007 4:56 PM | Link to this

I agree both that “The Departed” should win and that “Little Miss Sunshine” will win. If “Babel” repeats the “Crash” pattern (and even though I hate “Crash” as much as “Babel,” I don’t see that happening, because “Crash” still had more going on), I will have to KILL somebody in Hollywood.

By Kim S.

February 22, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

I’m still bitter about “Dreamgirls” not getting the nod, but I’ll take “The Departed”. If “Sunshine” wraps it up I wouldn’t exactly be offended, especially since comedy isn’t usually recognized by the Academy. After the surprise of “Crash”, though, I can’t see a smaller indie winning twice in a row. However, if “Babel” wins, I’m done with the Oscars in general. (Hold me to that, Eric.)

By Allie D.

February 22, 2007 12:06 PM | Link to this

I’ll just say this — I will be pissed if Babel wins, only because it will hold true to pattern that the, to quote your perfect description, “self-consciously important and heavy” film wins Best Picture. I have not seen Little Miss Sunshine yet (it’s on my Netflix Queue), but I’d be happy to see a movie like that win for once. The Departed is, of course, my favorite of the bunch.
 

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