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Can conservatives hurt McCain
The view is widespread that John McCain has a conservatives problem that could be fatal.
Reporter Matt Stearns writing a typical an analysis for McClatchy:
“Though such ‘maverick’ stances made McCain a darling of the media and independent voters, it’s a simple fact that a general-election victory without the enthusiasm of the Republican Party’s grassroots base would be impossible.”
Let’s examine this “simple fact.”
If we are talking about the possibility that conservatives might vote against McCain, forget it. The matter of Supreme Court nominations alone is enough to bring along the people who are so intensely conservative as to be furious about McCain. They won’t want to cede the Democrats this power.
If we’re talking about the possibility that these people won’t vote at all, forget that, too. These are passionately political people. For them, voting is fundamental. There’s nothing you can do to keep them from voting.
If we’re talking about the possibility that they will withhold their energies from the campaign, a couple of points:
Political energy and enthusiasm are frequently measured in terms of money. But money won’t be McCain’s problem. There’s always plenty of money available in presidential general elections, at least for any candidate who is seen as having any chance of winning.
Anyway, in no election does money matter less than the presidential. The campaign is so pervasive, there’s so much news coverage and general discussion, as to render paid commercials unimportant. Nobody is going to be moved by ads in this one. Indeed, we’ve seen that money hasn’t even mattered in the primaries. (Ask Romney.) It won’t matter in the general.
(Yes, some people think that, in 2004, the money that went into the “Swift Boat” ads hurt John Kerry. But that’s only because, when an election is close, every factor under the sun gets pointed to as the reason for the outcome by somebody. Let’s not forget, however, that the underlying predictive system of this blog predicted a Democratic defeat in January of ‘04, long before anybody knew Kerry would be the nominee, much less who would run what ads.)
Political energy can also be expressed in the form of volunteerism: ringing doorbells, making calls, licking stamps and whatnot.
But for the alleged experts to worry about this form of energy lacking in the McCain race is interesting. After all, few of those experts see these activities as affecting more than a couple of percentage points in finally outcomes. So, to imagine that this factor might be decisive in November is to assume a very close election that comes down to a couple of states. To make that assumption is to fight the last war.
Anyway, if McCain does lose the energy and enthusiasm of some potential Republican volunteers, he could also easily pick up the efforts of others. He has an appeal to retired military people, who often have the time and energy to volunteer. He has an appeal to Republicans and independents who LIKE the idea of a person showing independence from his party. His identification with certain positions on pork, immigration and other issues could get him some volunteers. At bottom, there’s no indication that when the likes of McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani depart from Republican orthodoxy - as all have, often - they necessarily lose more than they gain, politically speaking.
Having said all that, there IS one way in which the conservatives can hurt McCain:
If, at the convention, the party seems deeply divided, that’s bad news. Division in an incumbent party comes off as evidence that the party is incomfortable with its own record, that it has lost its way. Its trumpet becomes uncertain. The Democrats in ’68 and ’80 and the Republicans in ’76 all paid a price for internal division at their conventions. (But it’s hard to find cases where a challenging party has paid such a price.)
If serious division is apparent at the Republican convention, the issue won’t be what the conservatives will do in the fall campaign and election. The issue will be how the swing voters react to the divisions.
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